Article Dans Une Revue npj climate and atmospheric science Année : 2024

Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections

Giorgia Fosser
Marco Gaetani
Elizabeth Kendon
Marianna Adinolfi
Nikolina Ban
  • Fonction : Auteur
Danijel Belušić
João Careto
  • Fonction : Auteur
Erika Coppola
Marie-Estelle Demory
Hylke de Vries
Andreas Dobler
Hendrik Feldmann
Klaus Goergen
Geert Lenderink
Emanuela Pichelli
Christoph Schär
Pedro Soares
Merja Tölle
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Abstract Extreme precipitation events lead to dramatic impacts on society and the situation will worsen under climate change. Decision-makers need reliable estimates of future changes as a basis for effective adaptation strategies, but projections at local scale from regional climate models (RCMs) are highly uncertain. Here we exploit the km-scale convection-permitting multi-model (CPM) ensemble, generated within the FPS Convection project, to provide new understanding of the changes in local precipitation extremes and related uncertainties over the greater Alpine region. The CPM ensemble shows a stronger increase in the fractional contribution from extreme events than the driving RCM ensemble during the summer, when convection dominates. We find that the CPM ensemble substantially reduces the model uncertainties and their contribution to the total uncertainties by more than 50%. We conclude that the more realistic representation of local dynamical processes in the CPMs provides more reliable local estimates of change, which are essential for policymakers to plan adaptation measures.
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Dates et versions

hal-04868357 , version 1 (07-01-2025)

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Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, Elizabeth Kendon, Marianna Adinolfi, Nikolina Ban, et al.. Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections. npj climate and atmospheric science, 2024, 7 (1), pp.51. ⟨10.1038/s41612-024-00600-w⟩. ⟨hal-04868357⟩
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